U.S. Solar Market to Double in 2010; Average Home System Price to Drop

2010 is set to be a big year for solar power. The economy is picking up a little speed, Recovery Act dollars are expected to finally roll out to eagerly waiting solar projects, solar equipment prices continue to fall and we?re seeing the natural growth of a fast-paced industry. In response to these and other factors, some lofty predictions are being made for the coming year. The latest comes from Roger Efird, chairman of the Solar Energy Industries Association and Managing Director for Suntech America.

Efird recently asserted that the US solar market will double in 2010, pointing to the above reasons and the fact that solar power is becoming more affordable for the middle class. Specifically, he noted that installed solar capacity could reach 1 gigawatt this year, the significance of which he illustrated well in saying, ?If you are in the solar business, you were talking watts 15 years ago, you were talking kilowatts 10 years ago, you have trouble even talking megawatts today.? In other words, reaching a gigawatt this year would be a momentous feat and is subsequently a bold prediction.

As far as falling prices go, Harry Fleming, CEO of Acro Energy Technologies, pointed to the significant discounts that homeowners have to look forward to. He told MIT?s Technology Review that the average cost of a 5-kilowatt home solar power system in California ? $22,000 after rebates and incentives ? has dropped to $16,000 in the last 18 months. That price is expected to drop to $13,000 after incentives by the end of the year.

"solar projects should get underway this year as bureaucratic red tape unwinds and funding finally reaches its point of use"

On a larger scale, stimulus-funded solar projects should get underway this year as bureaucratic red tape unwinds and funding finally reaches its point of use. Add to that the fact that utilities are now eligible for federal tax credits for their own solar projects, which itself unfolds a whole new dimension to the solar industry. The result will be a big jump in US solar capacity in 2010, say Efird and many in the solar industry.

Yet many of the hang-ups and hurdles plaguing big solar projects remain as 2010 gets underway. Environmental, permitting and transmission problems remain. Much of Efird?s prediction may rely on these problems being taken care of. Helpful steps to mitigate those issues would be designating zones where solar farms could be easily deployed, something the federal Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is currently working on. Other steps would be a national renewable electricity standard and a national net metering standard allowing owners to connect their solar systems to the electric grid ? no matter where they live ? and receive some credits or even cash for the renewable power they provide to that grid.

2009 seems to have been a year for setting things in motion, like a snake coiling up in preparation for a strike. Could 2010 be the year for that strike? Solar insiders believe so, and many, including Roger Efird, even go so far as to predict a major strike, one in which the US solar market takes a big bite out of the global market and asserts its dominance in the world of solar power.

Source: Technology Review